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Names:  Paula Heckman, Patricia Kelly, Dianne Cutter, Margaret Heasley

 

Grade Level:  K—2                                  Content Area:  Probability/Predictions

 

PA standard(s) addressed: 2.7.3CD            NCTM standards:  Data Analysis

                                                                                           & Probability

C. List or graph the possible results of an                 Develop & evaluate inferences and

experiment.                                                                 predictions that are based on data.

D. Analyze data using the concepts of largest,          Understand & apply basic concepts

smallest, most often, least often, and middle.            of probability.

 

 

 

Problem Name:  Jackson School Milk Choices

 

Problem:  At the Jackson School the children have a choice of milk flavors for lunch.  They can choose chocolate, white, or strawberry milk. The chart shows the choices children made for Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.    

 

   

 

 

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Chocolate

| | | |

| |

| | | |  |

White

| | |

| | | |

| | |

Strawberry

|

| | |

| |

 

 

Directions:  Shade the bars on the graph using the information on the chart to show the total choices already made. 

 

          Answer the questions using your completed graph.  Be sure to explain your answers. 

 

 

Jackson School Milk Choices

 

Chocolate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strawberry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

 

Which flavor of milk will likely be chosen by the most children by the end

 

of the week?  ________________________________ Explain your answer:

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

Which flavor of milk will likely be chosen by the fewest children by the end of the week?_______________________________  Explain your answer:

 

_____________________________________________________________

 

 

Problem Solution:

 

Jackson School Milk Choices

 

Chocolate

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Strawberry

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

 

 

Answers to questions:

1.     Student should predict chocolate as the flavor likely to be chosen the most.

2.     Student should predict strawberry as the flavor likely to be chosen the least.

 

Possible explanations:

1.     Chocolate has 14

White has 10

Strawberry has 6

 

Because chocolate is already more by Wednesday I think it will be the one chosen the most by Friday.  Because strawberry is already less by Wednesday I think it will be the one chosen the least by Friday.

 

2.     The graph shows that chocolate has already been chosen the most, so I think chocolate will likely be chosen the most by the end of the week.  The graph shows that strawberry has already been chosen the least, so I think strawberry will likely be chosen the least by the end of the week.

 

Problem Name:  Jackson School Milk Choices

 

Specific Rubric:

 

5:  Advance Understanding

·        Correctly enters the information on the graph.

·        Gives the correct answer to both questions.

·        Gives a clear and complete explanation to support answers given.

 

4:  Satisfactory Understanding

·        Correctly enters the information on the graph.

·        Gives the correct answer to both questions.

·        Gives satisfactory explanation or an explanation is missing a detail.

 

3:  Almost Satisfactory Understanding

·        Correctly enters the information on the graph; makes correct predictions; gives no explanation or wrong explanation.

·        Incorrectly enters the information on the graph; makes correct predictions; correctly supports correct predictions.

 

2:  Partial Understanding

·        One or more mistakes made on the graph; predictions are correct; no explanation or wrong explanation.

·        One or more mistakes made on the graph; predictions are wrong; no explanation or wrong explanation.

 

1:  Minimal Understanding

·        None of the graph filled in or only partially filled in; correct predictions; no explanations or wrong explanations.

·        Graph is not readable; predictions are wrong; no explanations or wrong explanations.

 

0:  No Understanding

·        No attempt made to do the graph

·        Wrong predictions or no predictions

·        No explanations.

 

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