Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* Good Travel weather in the days leading up to thanksgiving *

11:15 a.m. Friday, November 21, 2025, Update:

As anticipated, a widespread 0.25-0.50" of beneficial rain fell across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley Tuesday night (see below). In the wake of the disturbance, the combination of easterly flow off the Atlantic and high amounts of moisture in the low-levels of the atmosphere has led to cloudy, damp, dreary and raw conditions the last couple of days. Unfortunately, clouds will hang tough again today, but at least high temperatures will be back around average (mid 50s) due to the return of light, southwesterly flow (see below).

Much like Tuesday night, a weak disturbance will then zip eastward through the mid-Atlantic States tonight and bring periods of light rain and drizzle to the region between ~9 PM this evening and 10 AM Saturday. Any lingering showers should push south/east of the I-95 corridor around or shortly before midday. The track of the system will be virtually identical to Tuesday night's disturbance, and rainfall amounts will also be similar and on the order of 0.20-0.40". Moderate drought conditions were expanded across the region on this week's U.S. Drought Monitor update, so the rain will be largely beneficial (see below). Just make sure to grab an umbrella if you have any outdoor plans tomorrow morning.

In the wake of the disturbance, clouds will give way to sunshine by Saturday afternoon, and a light, northwesterly breeze of 7-14 mph will accompany highs in the low 50s for most. Overall, it won't be a bad start to the weekend by late-November standards, and the second half of the weekend should turn out quite pleasant! An area of high pressure centered over the mid-Mississippi and Lower Ohio River Valleys will stretch northeastward into the Commonwealth from Saturday night into Sunday and promote mainly clear and dry conditions during that time. Temperatures will bottom out in the seasonably cold upper 20s to low 30s Saturday night but then rise quickly Sunday morning. In fact, an 8-16 mph southwesterly breeze should help boost them into the mid 50s Sunday afternoon (see below). You'll definitely need to grab a winter coat before heading out the door to Sunday morning church services, but a light jacket or sweatshirt should suffice during the afternoon hours. For the weekend before Thanksgiving, you really couldn't ask for much better weather. I'll take it!

The aforementioned high pressure system will shift into the Commonwealth on Monday and promote a continuation of mostly sunny, tranquil and pleasant conditions. Much like Sunday, mostly sunny skies and light winds will accompany high temperatures in the mid 50s Monday afternoon. The high pressure system will then shift into the western Atlantic from Monday night into Tuesday, and southerly winds on its backside will direct moist air into the mid-Atlantic States. As a result, clouds will increase on Monday night, and showers will likely return on Tuesday in advance of an approaching cold front. However, most of the upper-level energy associated with the front will track through the Great Lakes region, southeastern Canada and northern New England, so Tuesday's showers should generally be of the "light and intermittent" variety. At this point, I don't anticipate more than an additional 0.25-0.50" of rain from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The showers may cause a few slowdowns on highways and interstates prior to the Thanksgiving holiday, but any wet weather in the foreseeable future will be highly beneficial due to the drought. The cold front should traverse the Lower Susquehanna Valley from northwest-to-southeast later Tuesday night into Wednesday, but no more than additional shower will accompany its passage. In fact, the weather should cooperate and be quite nice for motorists on the busiest travel day of the year. High temperatures should reach the unseasonably mild upper 50s to low 60s across northern MD and southeastern PA on Wednesday, and skies will probably end up partly-to-mostly sunny. The bulk of Tuesday's showers should push off the Eastern Seaboard by the Wednesday morning commute, so travel conditions should not only be ideal locally but also along much of the I-78, 80, 81, 83 and 95 corridors. I'm always happy to be the bearer of GOOD NEWS! 🙂

Behind the aforementioned cold front, gusty, west-to-northwesterly winds of 15-30 mph are expected to usher much chillier and drier air into the Northeast just in time for Thanksgiving. In stark contrast to Wednesday, high temperatures will probably end up a couple degrees below average on Thanksgiving (mid-to-upper 40s). However, the odds of any precipitation are low, and there should at least be some sunshine throughout the day. It will certainly be too cold to host Thanksgiving dinner outside, but there won't be any weather-related issues on the way to-and-from holiday family gatherings. A Canadian high pressure system may then settle over the Commonwealth on Black Friday, so that would spell more great news for shoppers! Sure, unseasonably chilly conditions are a "good bet" late next week, but winds should subside with the high pressure system nearby or directly overhead. Just make sure to bundle up and wear layers Friday morning with lows in the 20s, and you'll be good to go! The details of the holiday forecast may change to some degree over the next few days, so check back early next week for an update. As of right now, the weather looks "promising".. fingers crossed! 🤞 -- Elliott

10:30 a.m. Tuesday, November 18, 2025:

As anticipated, the rainfall component of Sunday night's cold frontal passage was negligible, at best, across northern MD and southeastern PA. Nearly all areas received less than 0.10" of rain, and many received no measurable precipitation at all (see below). However, the howling, northwesterly winds behind the front certainly lived up to and even exceeded expectations. Peak gusts on Sunday reached 51 mph at York Airport, 53 mph at Lancaster Airport and 55 mph at Harrisburg International Airport, and gusts were still in the 40-50 mph range on Monday. The strong winds caused downed tree limbs and power lines across the region, as well as isolated power outages and blowing debris on roadways.

Fortunately, a bubble of high pressure settled into the central Appalachians last night and caused winds to finally subside. The high pressure will remain in control of our weather today, but clouds will increase this afternoon in advance of a fast-moving disturbance. Due to the clouds, high temperatures will be around 5-10°F below average and generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. The disturbance will zip eastward through the mid-Atlantic States tonight and bring periods of light rain and drizzle to the Lower Susquehanna Valley between ~7 PM this evening and 7 AM Wednesday. Rain should exit southeastern PA by 8 AM Wednesday, so wet roadways during the morning commute will be the only real weather-related concern from the system. Most areas will receive 0.25-0.50" (or less) of rain from the system (see below). Overall, the rain will be highly beneficial due to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions in place across the region. 

Behind the disturbance, cloudy, damp and cool conditions will stick around through Thursday. An area of high pressure will shift from the Great Lakes region into northern New England from Wednesday into Thursday. Moist, easterly flow off the Atlantic to its south and west will be the culprit for the dreary weather during the middle of the week. There won't be much of a difference between high- and low temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday due to the persistent cloud cover. Overall, highs will remain around 5-10°F below average (mid-to-upper 40s) with lows around 5-10°F above average (upper 30s to low 40s). I won't rule out some patchy drizzle across the region from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night, but most of that time period should be dry. A weak cold front will then zip through southeastern Canada and New England from Thursday night into Friday and finally disrupt the easterly flow to its south across the mid-Atlantic States. As a result, winds should turn southwesterly by Friday morning and gradually scour out the low clouds. There will still be a good deal of cloud cover around on Friday, but enough sunshine should peek through to boost high temperatures back into the mid-to-upper 50s during the afternoon hours. Overall, it will be a relatively nice end to the week by late-November standards, and you may even be able to shed jackets and sweatshirts for several hours Friday afternoon. From Friday night into Saturday, another weak disturbance will move from the Lower Ohio Valley into the southern mid-Atlantic States and take a similar track to tonight's system. Once again, light rain or a few showers may graze the southern-tier counties of PA later Friday night into Saturday morning, but I do not expect rainfall amounts to be as high as tonight. In fact, rain may ultimately stay south of the Mason-Dixon Line depending on the exact track of the system. Time will tell!

Another high pressure system will then settle into southern New England or the Commonwealth later Saturday into Sunday and promote light winds, more sunshine and relatively pleasant conditions for most of the weekend. Any morning clouds will likely push south/east of the region Saturday afternoon, and skies should then stay mainly clear through at least Sunday night. At this point, I expect high temperatures to be in the comfortable low-to-mid 50s both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with overnight lows in the chilly low-to-mid 30s. You'll definitely need to grab a winter coat before heading out the door to Sunday morning church services, but a light jacket or sweatshirt will suffice during the afternoon hours. Uncertainty in the forecast increases early next week, but odds favor a continuation of dry, tranquil and seasonable conditions through at least Tuesday. One thing's for certain: I don't see any notable "cold blasts" or opportunities for early-season snow in the next 10 days, and the overall pattern across the Eastern States will be rather quiet in the days leading up to Thanksgiving. That's exactly what the doctor ordered on some of the busiest travel days of the year! -- Elliott