Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* mild through sunday, but a taste of winter to follow *

11:30 a.m. Friday, November 7, 2025, Update:

Wednesday evening's cold front certainly meant business in terms of howling winds! A gusty line of showers tore through northern MD and southeastern PA from northwest-to-southeast between ~7-11 PM and caused widespread reports of wind damage across the region. Peak wind gusts reach 43 mph at Millersville University, 53 mph at York Airport, 54 mph at Lancaster Airport, 61 mph at Reading Airport and 62 mph at Harrisburg International Airport (see below). In the wake of the front, northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph ushered much cooler and drier air into the Commonwealth on Thursday, and high temperatures fell back to around average for early November (mid-to-upper 50s). An area of high pressure then settled into the mid-Atlantic States on Thursday night and caused winds to subside. However, the tranquil conditions came at the price of the coldest night of the season so far. In fact, low temperatures this morning bottomed out at 25°F at York Airport, 29°F at Millersville and Lancaster Airport, and 32°F at Harrisburg International Airport. Fortunately, southerly winds on the backside of the high will increase this afternoon, gust up to 35 mph at times and boost milder air right back into the region. Despite the frigid start, high temperatures should peak in the low 60s for most this afternoon under partly sunny skies, but the stiff wind will make it feel quite a bit cooler outside. 

A weak disturbance will traverse the Lower Susquehanna Valley from west-to-east tonight, but showers won't reach areas south/east of Interstates 78/81 until after the PM commute. Better yet, they will have exited southeastern PA by 7-8 AM tomorrow morning, and clouds should break for sunshine shortly thereafter. Due to the abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions in place, the 0.25-0.50" or less of rain will be highly beneficial (see below). Then again, that certainly won't be enough to put even the slightest dent in the drought.

The weekend will then kick off on a mostly sunny and pleasantly mild note with highs in the mid-to-upper 60s across the entire region. A weak bubble of high pressure will briefly settle into the mid-Atlantic States and promote light winds and dry conditions, as well. Overall, it will be a great day for outdoor activities, and some of you may feel comfortable in shorts and t-shirts during the afternoon hours. How often can you say that in November? I'll take it! Unfortunately, the sunshine won't stick around for the second half of the weekend. Clouds will return Saturday night in advance of a potent cold front, and a second round of scattered showers will then accompany its passage on Sunday. There may be one round of light showers Sunday morning and then a second line of heavier and locally gusty showers along the cold front itself later Sunday afternoon/evening. Despite the clouds and showers, high temperatures should still be around 5-10 degrees above average ahead of the front and reach the low-to-mid 60s (see below). Keep an umbrella handy both for Sunday morning church services and any outdoor activities you may have planned Sunday afternoon, but it still shouldn't be a bad day overall.

If you're a warm-weather lover like myself, you might want to not read this last paragraph. Behind Sunday's vigorous cold front, northwesterly winds will draw a cold, Canadian air mass southward into the Central and Eastern States early next week. Wind gusts up to 30 mph on Monday and 40 mph on Tuesday will accompany high temperatures some 10-15°F below average. That equates to highs in the mid 40s on Monday and perhaps only in the low 40s Tuesday. Factor in the blustery conditions, and wind chills will be stuck in the low-to-mid 30s both afternoons and bottom out in the high teens to low 20s at night. A deep trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, will amplify over the eastern half of the nation in response to a pronounced ridge over western North America. This large-scale pattern reversal will be the culprit for the unseasonably cold start to the week, and I won't even rule out the first flakes of the season in some parts of south-central PA. Due to partial cloud cover and an ongoing breeze, temperatures won't drop significantly at night, and overnight lows should only be a degree or two below average (30-32°F). Fortunately, this first "taste of winter" won't last too long, and southwesterly winds should return on Wednesday and boot the pocket of cold air out of the mid-Atlantic States. That being said, you will definitely need to break out the winter coats and gloves for 2-3 days and keep a tight grip on the wheel due to the high crosswinds. Consider it a harbinger of things to come.. -- Elliott 

11:30 a.m. Tuesday, November 4, 2025:

Halloween turned out blustery and rather chilly last Friday with wind gusts up to 45 mph and high temperatures in the upper 50s, but the weather over "Halloweekend" was fairly pleasant and quite typical of early November. An area of high pressure settled over the Commonwealth on Sunday and promoted light winds, mostly sunny skies and highs in the low-to-mid 60s. Winds increased again on Monday and gusted up to 30 mph at times during the late-afternoon and evening hours, and the blustery conditions are going to stick around through Thursday. However, the overall weather pattern will be relatively tranquil and mild through the second weekend of November. The only real threats for rain will be on Friday night and Sunday and occur in the form of scattered showers along and just ahead of two cold fronts. In the short term, an area of high pressure over the southeastern United States will bring sunny and seasonable conditions to northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley this afternoon with highs generally in the low 60s. Westerly winds will gust up to 30 mph at times through 2-3 PM before subsiding, albeit briefly, by the early-evening hours (see below). On Wednesday, winds will turn southwesterly ahead of an approaching cold front and increase throughout the day. They'll gust up to 30 mph again during the afternoon hours but also usher milder air into the region. After a seasonably cold Tuesday night with lows in the mid-to-upper 30s, high temperatures should peak in the mid 60s to perhaps low 70s (western half of the Valley) Wednesday afternoon.

The aforementioned cold front will then sweep through northern MD and southeastern PA Wednesday evening, but no more than a stray shower will accompany its passage. However, a 6-hour period of howling, northwesterly winds will follow immediately behind the front, and gusts could reach 45 mph at times between ~7 PM Wednesday and 1 AM Thursday. A tight pressure gradient, or difference in pressure, will linger across the mid-Atlantic States on Thursday, so northwesterly winds will still gust up to 30 mph during the daylight hours. The northwesterly flow will also direct a cooler and drier air mass into the Commonwealth, so high temperatures will fall back to around average and be in the mid-to-upper 50s. Another high pressure system will settle directly overhead Thursday night and finally cause winds to diminish completely, but low temperatures will plummet into the upper 20s (outlying areas) to mid 30s (urban centers) due to mainly clear skies, light winds and a very dry air mass in place. The area of high pressure will shift quickly into the western Atlantic on Friday. On its backside, a southerly breeze of 12-25 mph will begin to usher milder air into the region, but high temperatures will struggle to get above the upper 50s because of the cold start to the day. As discussed in the first paragraph, a weak cold front will then traverse the Commonwealth from west-to-east Friday night and bring a few showers to the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Rainfall amounts appear light at this distance and on the order of 0.10-0.20" or less, and showers should already have exited southeastern PA by daybreak Saturday. Due to the clouds and showers, low temperatures will be around 10-15 degrees above normal Friday night and generally in the mid-to-upper 40s. Better yet, the air mass behind the front will actually be slightly milder than the one ahead of it, so high temperatures should be in the low 60s Saturday afternoon under partly sunny skies (see below). Overall, it will be an ideal start to the weekend for outdoor activities, and you may even be able to shed the jackets or sweatshirts Saturday afternoon. No complaints here!

A second, much stronger and more potent cold front is then expected to move through the mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. It will be starved for moisture and, therefore, just be accompanied by another round of scattered showers. However, northwesterly winds behind it will draw a cold, Canadian air mass southward into the Central and Eastern States early next week, and high temperatures will likely fail to reach the 50-degree mark both Monday and Tuesday. Factor in the blustery conditions, and wind chills may be stuck in the 30s both afternoons and bottom out in the 20s at night. A deep trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, will amplify over the eastern half of the nation in response to a pronounced ridge over western North America. This large-scale pattern reversal will be the culprit for the unseasonably cold start to the week, and I won't even rule out the first flakes of the season in a few parts of south-central PA. Fortunately, this first "taste of winter" won't last too long, and a significant warming trend should commence by the middle to latter part of the week. That being said, you will definitely need to break out the winter coats and gloves for 2-3 days. Consider it a harbinger of things to come.. -- Elliott