Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* windy and colder again early next week *

1:00 p.m. Friday, November 14, 2025, Update:

In terms of temperature, the last couple of days have been quite seasonable by mid-November standards, but strong winds have made the outdoor air feel much chillier. Southwesterly gusts reached 30 mph on Wednesday, and northwesterly gusts were even higher yesterday and on the order of 35-40 mph. Fortunately, we're going to get a break from the blustery conditions this afternoon and again tomorrow, but another round of howling winds is just around the corner. Despite increasing clouds this afternoon and a chilly start this morning, high temperatures will be near normal on our TGIF and in the mid 50s for most. An area of high pressure over the central Appalachians and southern mid-Atlantic States has also caused the pressure gradient, or change in pressure, across the region to weaken. Winds have subsequently slackened and will only be sustained at 8-16 mph with gusts up to 20 mph throughout the rest of the day (see below). After a partly cloudy and seasonably cold Friday night with lows in the low-to-mid 30s, a light, southerly breeze of 7-14 mph will direct slightly milder air into the region on Saturday. The milder air mass will run into some resistance east of I-83 and north of the PA Turnpike, so there may be a big difference in high temperatures from northeast-to-southwest across the Lower Susquehanna Valley Saturday afternoon. At this point, I expect highs to only reach the low 50s across parts of Lebanon, Lancaster and Dauphin Counties, but they'll probably soar into the low 60s in parts of Adams and Franklin Counties. Either way, the weather will be fairly ideal for outdoor activities tomorrow despite mostly cloudy skies, and any showers should hold off until after sunset. 

A cold front will then sweep through the Commonwealth from northwest-to-southeast Saturday night and bring a few light showers to northern MD and southeastern PA. However, the bulk of the activity should pass north of the Lower Susquehanna Valley, and many areas may not even receive measurable rain. In those that do, rainfall amounts will still not exceed 0.10-0.20". Strengthening, southwesterly winds just ahead of the cold front will actually cause temperatures to rise Saturday night after an evening low in the mid-to-upper 40s, and they could actually reach the upper 50s to low 60s again between 3-6 AM Sunday morning. Unfortunately, the milder conditions will be "cut off at the knees" by the cold frontal passage, and northwesterly winds of 15-30 mph with gusts up to 45 mph will usher much colder and drier air into the region on Sunday (see below). As a result, temperatures will gradually fall throughout the day and end up in the mid-to-upper 40s by the late-afternoon or early-evening hours. In addition, motorists should alert for blowing objects and debris on roadways, especially on the drive back from Sunday morning church services. Isolated power outages and downed tree limbs may occur, as well.

The blustery conditions will persist through Sunday night and Monday with northwesterly gusts still up to 40 mph during that time. Increasingly colder air will also seep into the mid-Atlantic States early next week, and high temperatures both Monday and Tuesday afternoons should end up around 5-10°F below average (mid-to-upper 40s). Much like the last several nights, partial cloud cover and a persistent breeze will prevent temperatures from falling too much at night and overnight lows from being below average. Thus, lows should generally be in the mid 30s to perhaps 40°F Sunday night and in the low-to-mid 30s both Monday and Tuesday nights. Any sunshine early Sunday and Monday mornings will again be of the "self-destruct" variety and quickly give way to mostly cloudy conditions by the late-morning and afternoon hours. Needless to say, wind chills will bottom out in the mid-to-upper 20s Sunday night and in the low-to-mid 20s Monday night and remain in the 30s Monday afternoon, so winter coats and gloves will be a necessity before heading out the door to work or school. Much like Sunday, keep a tight grip on the wheel on Monday, as well, to avoid being blown into adjacent lanes.

From Monday night into Tuesday, a weak bubble of high pressure will shift from the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region into the mid-Atlantic States and cause this next round of howling winds to subside. However, a weak disturbance may zip from the Lower Ohio Valley into the southern mid-Atlantic States from Tuesday into Tuesday night and graze northern MD and the southern-tier counties of PA with a brief period of light rain. At this distance, it is just as likely that any precipitation remains south of Interstate 70 and the middle of next week turns out chilly but dry. The disturbance will be moving into a zone of large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, and weakening upon its eastward journey over the Appalachians. Thus, any rain that does fall Tuesday night and/or Wednesday certainly won't amount to much, and drier and milder conditions should then return late next week. I'll leave it there for now, so check back early next week for an update! One thing's for certain: I don't see any notable "cold blasts" or opportunities for early-season snow on the horizon, and the overall pattern could be quite mild from the middle of next week through the Thanksgiving holiday. Stay tuned! -- Elliott

1:00 p.m. Tuesday, November 11, 2025:

Following a relatively pleasant and mild weekend, a potent cold front swept through the mid-Atlantic States Sunday night and ushered an unseasonably cold air mass into the region. Northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph made temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s feel much colder Monday afternoon, and a lack of sunshine didn't help matters either. Unfortunately, the weather is even worse today and more typical of a day in mid-January than mid-November. Westerly winds will continue to gust up to 40-45 mph at times this afternoon, and temperatures will hover in the upper 30s to low 40s. As a result, wind chills will not exceed the upper 20s to low 30s, and you'll need to dress in layers and wear a winter coat and gloves to stay warm (see below). Motorists should also keep a tight grip on the wheel and be alert for blowing objects and debris on roadways. With temperatures some 10-15°F below average this afternoon, Veterans Day is feeling more like MLK Day this go around.. yuck!

A deep trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, over the Eastern U.S. is the culprit for our miserably cold start to the week. In addition, a tight pressure gradient, or change in pressure, will linger across the Commonwealth through at least Thursday and keep blustery conditions in place. Winds won't be quite as strong tomorrow or Thursday, but they'll still gust up to 30 mph at times each day (see below). Fortunately, winds will at least turn southwesterly on Wednesday and boot the core of the coldest air back into southeastern and Atlantic Canada, so this early "taste of winter" won't last very long. Despite mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will be around 10°F higher than today and in the upper 40s to mid 50s from north-to-south across the region. However, you may still need a heavy jacket or winter coat before venturing outdoors due to the persistent breeze (see below). Thursday's weather will essentially be a "carbon copy" of Wednesday with the exception of substantially more sunshine. The mid- and low-levels of the atmosphere will gradually dry out from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and cause clouds to dissipate downwind of the Appalachian mountains. Thus, it will at least feel a bit milder outside on Thursday but still not "pleasant" by any stretch of the imagination. Due to partial cloud cover and the ongoing breeze, temperatures won't drop too much at night. In fact, overnight lows may actually be slightly above normal Wednesday night and only bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Consider it the one "bright spot" in an otherwise nasty few days of weather..

Looking ahead toward the end of the week and upcoming weekend, an area of high pressure will shift from the Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic States. By Saturday, it will extend northward into southern New England and southeastern Canada and be in full control of the weather across northern MD and southeastern PA. Northwesterly winds may still be sustained at 10-20 mph on Friday, but at least the sun will be shining and accompany high temperatures in the mid 50s. With the high directly overhead, Friday night will probably end up being the coldest of the entire week. Clear skies, light winds and very dry air will promote the ideal setting for efficient, radiational cooling, and overnight lows should bottom out in the mid-to-upper 20s. The weekend will then kick off on a partly sunny and cool note with highs around 5°F below average (near 50°F) Saturday afternoon. From Saturday night into Sunday, a clipper-type system is expected to zip from the Great Lakes region into New England and cause clouds to return. To its south, a warm front will likely push through the Commonwealth from southwest-to-northeast Saturday night. However, a trailing cold front will follow on its heels Sunday afternoon and evening. Most precipitation associated with clipper systems falls along and to the north/east of their track. Thus, I only expect one or two rounds of scattered showers to impact south-central PA during the second half of the weekend, and we may actually be in the system's "warm sector" for most of the day on Sunday. If so, then a 12-25 mph southwesterly breeze would likely accompany high temperatures in the mid 60s to perhaps 70°F during the early-afternoon hours prior to the cold frontal passage. Behind it, another round of howling, northwesterly winds will usher the next blast of unseasonably cold air into the Northeast early next week, but at least warm-weather lovers like myself will get a one-day reprieve from the chill. By next Monday and Tuesday, highs will probably fail to reach 50°F, and the combination of gusty winds and below-average temperatures may require the use of winter coats and gloves once more. Then again, we are getting to that time of year when coats, gloves, and heavy clothing will be the "attire of choice" on most days. Ugh.. -- Elliott