Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* windy and chilly.. but dry.. this week *

1:00 p.m. Tuesday, November 11, 2025:

Following a relatively pleasant and mild weekend, a potent cold front swept through the mid-Atlantic States Sunday night and ushered an unseasonably cold air mass into the region. Northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph made temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s feel much colder Monday afternoon, and a lack of sunshine didn't help matters either. Unfortunately, the weather is even worse today and more typical of a day in mid-January than mid-November. Westerly winds will continue to gust up to 40-45 mph at times this afternoon, and temperatures will hover in the upper 30s to low 40s. As a result, wind chills will not exceed the upper 20s to low 30s, and you'll need to dress in layers and wear a winter coat and gloves to stay warm (see below). Motorists should also keep a tight grip on the wheel and be alert for blowing objects and debris on roadways. With temperatures some 10-15°F below average this afternoon, Veterans Day is feeling more like MLK Day this go around.. yuck!

A deep trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, over the Eastern U.S. is the culprit for our miserably cold start to the week. In addition, a tight pressure gradient, or change in pressure, will linger across the Commonwealth through at least Thursday and keep blustery conditions in place. Winds won't be quite as strong tomorrow or Thursday, but they'll still gust up to 30 mph at times each day (see below). Fortunately, winds will at least turn southwesterly on Wednesday and boot the core of the coldest air back into southeastern and Atlantic Canada, so this early "taste of winter" won't last very long. Despite mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures will be around 10°F higher than today and in the upper 40s to mid 50s from north-to-south across the region. However, you may still need a heavy jacket or winter coat before venturing outdoors due to the persistent breeze (see below). Thursday's weather will essentially be a "carbon copy" of Wednesday with the exception of substantially more sunshine. The mid- and low-levels of the atmosphere will gradually dry out from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning and cause clouds to dissipate downwind of the Appalachian mountains. Thus, it will at least feel a bit milder outside on Thursday but still not "pleasant" by any stretch of the imagination. Due to partial cloud cover and the ongoing breeze, temperatures won't drop too much at night. In fact, overnight lows may actually be slightly above normal Wednesday night and only bottom out in the upper 30s to low 40s across most of the Lower Susquehanna Valley. Consider it the one "bright spot" in an otherwise nasty few days of weather..

Looking ahead toward the end of the week and upcoming weekend, an area of high pressure will shift from the Tennessee River Valley into the Carolinas and southern mid-Atlantic States. By Saturday, it will extend northward into southern New England and southeastern Canada and be in full control of the weather across northern MD and southeastern PA. Northwesterly winds may still be sustained at 10-20 mph on Friday, but at least the sun will be shining and accompany high temperatures in the mid 50s. With the high directly overhead, Friday night will probably end up being the coldest of the entire week. Clear skies, light winds and very dry air will promote the ideal setting for efficient, radiational cooling, and overnight lows should bottom out in the mid-to-upper 20s. The weekend will then kick off on a partly sunny and cool note with highs around 5°F below average (near 50°F) Saturday afternoon. From Saturday night into Sunday, a clipper-type system is expected to zip from the Great Lakes region into New England and cause clouds to return. To its south, a warm front will likely push through the Commonwealth from southwest-to-northeast Saturday night. However, a trailing cold front will follow on its heels Sunday afternoon and evening. Most precipitation associated with clipper systems falls along and to the north/east of their track. Thus, I only expect one or two rounds of scattered showers to impact south-central PA during the second half of the weekend, and we may actually be in the system's "warm sector" for most of the day on Sunday. If so, then a 12-25 mph southwesterly breeze would likely accompany high temperatures in the mid 60s to perhaps 70°F during the early-afternoon hours prior to the cold frontal passage. Behind it, another round of howling, northwesterly winds will usher the next blast of unseasonably cold air into the Northeast early next week, but at least warm-weather lovers like myself will get a one-day reprieve from the chill. By next Monday and Tuesday, highs will probably fail to reach 50°F, and the combination of gusty winds and below-average temperatures may require the use of winter coats and gloves once more. Then again, we are getting to that time of year when coats, gloves, and heavy clothing will be the "attire of choice" on most days. Ugh.. -- Elliott