Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* "Summer preview" with record-breaking heat this week *

11:00 a.m. Tuesday, April 14, 2026:

After a mostly sunny, dry and pleasant weekend with highs in the 60s, residents of the mid-Atlantic States will experience a "summer preview" this week. The axis of a massive ridge, or northward bulge in the Jet Stream, will be centered along the Eastern Seaboard through Saturday in response to a deep trough, or dip in the Jet Stream, over western North America. A sprawling high pressure system centered near Bermuda will hold its ground through the end of the week, and broad, southwesterly flow to its north/west will continue to usher unseasonably warm air into the Lower Susquehanna Valley over the next several days. After high temperatures soar into the mid 80s this afternoon, they will likely reach 90°F in parts of northern MD and southeastern PA both Wednesday and Thursday under partly sunny skies. Wednesday's record high temperature of 87°F from 1941 at Millersville University will likely be broken, and Thursday's record high of 90°F from 2002 may also be tied or broken. Given enough sunshine, the first 90-degree day of the year is a "good bet" in many spots this week. Low temperatures through Thursday night will range from 60-65°F and be more typical of normal high temperatures in mid-April or average low temperatures in June/July. Some of you may even need to turn on the A.C. with aggregate temperatures around 20°F above average through Saturday (see below).

A pair of weak, upper-level disturbances will zip through southern New England and northern PA over the next 36 hours, so I won't rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm between 4-10 PM this evening and again on Wednesday. Due to the summer-like heat, instability and elevated moisture levels, some of the storms could produce brief, heavy downpours, frequent lightning and localized wind gusts up to 50 mph. These threats are most likely north of the PA Turnpike, and many locations farther south won't receive any rain whatsoever. However, keep an eye on the sky and be prepared to move indoors on short notice each of the next two evenings. Reduce speed and increase following distance in any heavier downpours, and be alert for blowing objects and minor debris on roadways. The Jet Stream ridge will be most amplified on Thursday with its periphery several hundred miles farther north, so I don't anticipate any showers or storms south of I-80 and perhaps even the PA/NY border. 

From Thursday night into Friday, a stronger disturbance is expected to track eastward through southern New England, and a trailing cold front will sweep through the Commonwealth. However, the timing of the front and track of the disturbance won't be ideal for much precipitation. Thus, I only expect a brief shower or two to accompany its passage in northern MD and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The air mass behind the front won't be much different than the one ahead of it, either, so Friday should still turn out partly-to-mostly sunny and unseasonably warm with highs in the low-to-mid 80s. An area of high pressure will then settle over the region on Friday night and promote mainly clear and comfortable conditions with lows in the 50s. It will quickly shift into the western Atlantic on Saturday, and south-to-southwesterly flow will return on its backside and boost high temperatures back into the mid-to-upper 80s under partly sunny skies. Needless to say, Saturday's weather will be perfect for outdoor activities such as fishing, golfing, biking, walking, tanning or even swimming. Water temperatures in area lakes, streams and rivers are already running way above normal for mid-April, and some will likely be in the low-to-mid 70s by Saturday. What a treat!

Unfortunately, this week's spell of summer-like heat won't last and is indeed just a preview of next season. A potent cold front will sweep through the mid-Atlantic States from northwest-to-southeast spanning Saturday night into Sunday and be accompanied by showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. Once again, the timing of the front (late Saturday night into Sunday morning) doesn't appear ideal for any severe weather across northern MD and southeastern PA, but we should at least get some beneficial rain (perhaps 0.25-0.50") out of it. You'll certainly need to grab the umbrella and rain gear handy before heading out the door to Sunday morning church services. Additionally, you'll probably have to break out the jackets and sweatshirts by Sunday afternoon and get used to wearing them again through early next week. Temperatures may still in the low 70s around or shortly after sunrise on Sunday but plummet into the 50s by the mid-to-late afternoon hours. Next week should then start on a partly sunny, breezy and much chillier note with highs in the low-to-mid 50s on Monday and mid 50s to perhaps 60°F on Tuesday. Northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph will be responsible for ushering the cooler air back into the region on Monday, and the massive, Jet Stream ridge will be replaced by a deep trough. In fact, low temperatures will likely end up in the 30s both Monday and Tuesday nights, and frost/freeze concerns may be the "top headline" in the forecast. Time will tell! Either way you slice it, Monday's and Tuesday's weather will be a taste of reality and a reminder that persistently warm/hot conditions are still 1-2 months away. I'll be out of the office from Thursday-Sunday, so check back early next week for an update! -- Elliott