Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* Nice and mild for valentine's day; some light rain sunday? *

Brief 12:45 p.m. Friday, February 13, 2026, Update:

The last few days have certainly been blustery and chilly across the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but they paled in comparison to the dangerously cold and extremely windy conditions over the first full weekend of February. Fortunately, the lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) responsible for the long stretch of miserably cold conditions across the Northeast and mid-Atlantic States since late January has retrograded into northwestern Canada and likely won't return for the rest of this winter season. Instead, the overall weather pattern during the second half of February should be considerably milder and more seasonable across the Eastern States. In fact, the large-scale Jet Stream pattern is currently undergoing a major reconfiguration, and there ultimately be a mean trough across western North America and ridge across eastern North America during the final two weeks of February. For cold-weary residents across northern MD and southeastern PA, that spells great news in the form of much-needed relief and lower heating bills due to decreased demand. As a warm-weather lover, I've never been more ready for the arrival of Meteorological Spring on March 1st. Let the countdown begin!

In the short term, a Canadian high pressure system over the Ohio Valley is promoting sunny and chilly conditions this afternoon, along with lighter winds, across the Lower Susquehanna Valley. High temperatures should generally top out in the mid-to-upper 30s with a gentle, northwesterly breeze of 7-14 mph (see below). Despite being ~5°F below average, high temperatures of this magnitude actually feel quite nice in comparison to recent days. We really have been at the bottom of the rabbit hole..

The high pressure system will then shift into the western Atlantic on Saturday. On its backside, westerly winds will usher milder and more pleasant air into the region just in time for Valentine's Day. Under mostly sunny skies, high temperatures should be around 5-10°F degrees above average, or in the mid 40s to perhaps 50°F, Saturday afternoon (see below). In terms of the weather, it really doesn't get better than that in mid-February! Tomorrow will end up being the mildest day since January 22, and the weather will be ideal for Valentine's Day dinners or movies with your significant other. Enjoy!

Looking ahead to the second half of the weekend, clouds will increase Saturday night well to the north and east of a strengthening storm system over the Southern States. As discussed on Tuesday, the system should track due-east through Sunday and exit into the Atlantic off the Georgia or South Carolina coastline. The system is only about 2.5 days away from reaching the Eastern Seaboard, and yet there is still no model consensus on its evolution and track. The location, speed, and interaction between a disturbance within the Jet Stream's northern and the main storm system within the Jet's southern branch are handled VERY differently by the GFS/ICON/ECMWF models vs. the NAM/RGEM/CMC/UKMET models. The first set of models suggest at least a partial interaction, or "phase," between the two systems, while the latter suggest no phasing whatsoever. Due to strong, northwesterly flow aloft across the mid-Atlantic States and the progressive nature of the large-scale weather pattern, I favor the latter outcome and a suppressed storm system (see below). Thus, light rain will likely struggle to reach areas north of the Mason-Dixon Line, and it may ultimately be confined to areas south of I-70. Regardless, there should be no winter weather-related hazards from the system, and most if not all of Sunday may just turn out mostly cloudy, dry and seasonable with high temperatures in the low 40s.

Behind the system, east-to-northeasterly flow off the Atlantic will likely cause low clouds to hang around on President's Day. As a result, high temperatures should be similar to Sunday following a relatively mild Saturday night with lows around freezing (32°F). A weak, clipper-type disturbance will then zip through southeastern Canada and northern New England on Monday night but remain too far north to bring any precipitation to south-central PA. What it will do is disrupt the easterly flow to its south and cause winds to develop a westerly component on Tuesday. The westerly flow will scour out any lingering low clouds Tuesday morning, and temperatures should then be "off to the races" Tuesday afternoon. We'll be deep within the clipper system's "warm sector," and I won't be surprised to see temperatures make a run at 55-60°F Tuesday afternoon with enough sunshine. Thereafter, the forecast becomes rife with uncertainty, so check back on Tuesday for an update. In the meantime, enjoy the holiday weekend and milder days ahead! -- Elliott

1:45 p.m. Tuesday, February 10, 2026:

The first full weekend of February was dangerously cold and extremely windy across the mid-Atlantic States. In fact, wind gusts reached 50-55 mph across the Lower Susquehanna Valley on Saturday, and wind chills were as low as 10-15°F below zero in spots early Sunday morning. A Canadian high pressure system settled over the region on Monday and caused winds to finally subside. Despite abundant sunshine, high temperatures still ended up around 15°F below average Monday afternoon. Fortunately, the high pressure system has since shifted into the western Atlantic, and southerly flow on its backside has ushered somewhat milder and more seasonable air into northern MD and southeastern PA this afternoon. A thick veil of cirrus clouds is dimming the sun, but temperatures have reached the mid-to-upper 30s across most of Lebanon, Lancaster and Dauphin Counties and mid 40s in parts of northern MD, Adams and Franklin Counties at the time of this writing (see below). Cold-weary residents across the region are finally getting a much-needed reprieve from the Arctic express this afternoon, and there's more where that came from over Valentine's Day Weekend! 

Beforehand, a cold front will traverse the Commonwealth from northwest-to-southeast tonight, but no precipitation is expected to accompany its passage. Behind the front, northwesterly winds of 12-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will accompany partly sunny and seasonable conditions on Wednesday with highs around 40°F. Due to a gentle breeze and good deal of cloud cover, low temperatures will also be much higher tonight and generally around 30°F. The blustery conditions will persist into Thursday, and high temperatures Thursday afternoon will be around 5°F lower than Wednesday under mostly cloudy skies. You'll still need to dress in layers and wear a winter coat through the end of the week, but the outdoor air will certainly feel more bearable/tolerable in comparison to the last 2+ weeks. Minimum wind chills Thursday morning should be in the teens, and they'll likely be in the low 20s during the afternoon hours. A tight pressure gradient, or difference in pressure, between a strengthening storm system over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure system over the Great Lakes region and Midwest will be responsible for the strong winds. That high pressure system will finally shift into the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Friday, so winds should slacken significantly and only be sustained at 10-20 mph on our TGIF. After a seasonably cold start with lows around 20°F, high temperatures Friday afternoon will be similar to Thursday despite more sunshine.  

Looking ahead into Valentine's Day Weekend, the high pressure system will once again shift into the western Atlantic. On its backside, southwesterly winds will direct milder air into the region, and large-scale subsidence, or sinking motion, will promote lots of sunshine for the holiday. Temperatures will probably be around 20°F again Saturday morning but top out in the mid 40s during the afternoon hours. In most areas, it could end up being the mildest day since January 22, and the weather will honestly be ideal for Valentine's Day dinners or movies with your significant other. There has been more unwarranted "hype" in recent days regarding a potential winter storm during the second half of the weekend. The odds of that actually happening are indeed very low. Instead, a developing storm system over the southern Plains on Saturday will likely track due-east through Sunday and exit into the Atlantic somewhere between South Carolina and northern Florida. Either way, that's too far south for any precipitation to reach northern MD or southern PA, and Sunday will likely just be partly-to-mostly cloudy and dry with highs in the 40s. Behind the system, early next week should turn out even nicer with mostly sunny skies accompanying a bigger moderating trend. High temperatures could approach or reach the 50-degree mark as early as Monday afternoon and potentially top out between 55-60°F Tuesday and/or Wednesday. Essentially, the weather is going to be a "snoozefest" for at least the next week. In terms of impacts to travel, that's great news! However, our moderate-to-extreme drought conditions are only going to worsen in the near future.. -- Elliott