Special Weather Discussion

Latest Weather Discussion by Kyle Elliott

* some storms on thursday, then a nice first weekend of summer *

11:00 a.m. Tuesday, June 16, 2026:

As expected, strong-to-severe thunderstorms rumbled through northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley Sunday evening, and one may have produced an EF-0 or EF-1 tornado near Kirkwood in southern Lancaster County. In addition, there were a few dozen reports of wind damage across the region. Most areas picked up 0.25-0.75" of beneficial rain from the event with locally higher amounts of 1-2" across southern York and Lancaster Counties (see below).

The cold front responsible for the storms swept through the Commonwealth Sunday night. Behind it, northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph ushered a much cooler and drier air mass into the mid-Atlantic States to kick off the third week of June. Under partly sunny skies, high temperatures were around 5°F below average Monday afternoon, or in the mid-to-upper 70s, with dewpoints back down in the low 50s. An area of high pressure settled into the mid-Atlantic States Monday night and caused winds to subside, and the system will promote mostly sunny skies, low humidity and comfortable conditions this afternoon with high temperatures virtually identical to Monday (see below). Quite frankly, the weather will be spectacular for outdoor activities and about as nice as possible by mid-June standards. Just make sure to lather on the sunscreen!

A weak disturbance will swing through the mid-Atlantic States from southwest-to-northeast later tonight into tomorrow and trigger isolated showers across northern MD, southeastern PA and the Lower Susquehanna Valley. A few thunderstorms may also erupt Wednesday afternoon, but most areas will remain dry. Most of the energy associated with the disturbance will move through the region during the late-night and morning hours, and humidity will still be rather low with dewpoints around 60°F Wednesday afternoon. Thus, coverage of showers and storms should be minimal, and most the day will simply turn out partly sunny and seasonably warm with high temperatures back in the low-to-mid 80s (see below).

After a warm and dry Wednesday night with lows in the mid-to-upper 60s, another batch of showers and thunderstorms will impact northern MD and southeastern PA Thursday morning well ahead of a cold front. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed the entire region in a "slight risk" for severe weather on Thursday, but I strongly disagree with their outlook. The setup is essentially a "rinse and repeat" of last Friday with strong, downsloping flow off the Appalachians following leftover, morning convection from Wednesday's severe weather outbreak in the Midwest. Recall that absolutely nothing happened last Friday despite expectations for scattered severe thunderstorms. In this case, I do expect showers and perhaps a few embedded thunderstorms to impact the region between ~7 AM and 1 PM, but instability will be low during the morning hours (see below). Dewpoints will rise into the mid-to-upper 60s by midday, but the atmosphere won't have a chance to "recover" and destabilize behind the morning convection. Thus, the most likely outcome Thursday afternoon is for dry and hot weather, along with decreasing clouds, with high temperatures around 90°F. Ahead of the aforementioned cold front, southwesterly winds will be sustained at 12-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph Thursday afternoon.. quite windy by summer standards.

Speaking of summer, the season officially begins on Sunday, June 21, at 4:24 AM EDT. In terms of the weather, I am pleased to announce nothing but "good news" over the first weekend of the season. Behind Thursday night's cold frontal passage, another cooler and much drier air mass will settle into the Northeast on Friday and stick around through Sunday. No more than an additional shower or two should accompany the frontal passage, and Friday will then turn out breezy and seasonably warm with decreasing clouds and much lower humidity. Dewpoints will fall into the upper 50s by Friday morning and continue to decrease through Friday night, ultimately ending up in the upper 40s to low 50s from Saturday morning through Sunday evening. Broad, northwesterly flow around the base of an upper-level trough over southeastern Canada will persist through the weekend, keeping showers and thunderstorms at bay and skies partly-to-mainly clear. A 12-25 mph breeze will accompany high temperatures around 80°F Saturday, and Sunday should only be slightly warmer with highs in the low 80s. Additionally, the weather will be perfect for sleeping with the windows wide open on Friday, Saturday and Sunday nights with low temperatures in the mid 50s to perhaps 60°F. Essentially, we're looking at a near-perfect start to summer with no more "dangerous heat" in the foreseeable future. I hope you're able to get outside and take advantage of the beautiful conditions this weekend! A storm system tracking from the Midwest to the mid-Atlantic States from Sunday into Monday will likely renew the threat for showers and thunderstorms early next week, but only a foolish meteorologist would try to provide details about timing, rainfall amounts and severe weather prospects at this distance. Regardless of the exact outcome, the rest of next week will likely turn out pleasantly warm and dry with low humidity. Another high pressure system appears slated to settle into the region from next Tuesday through at least Thursday and promote another stretch of dry and beautiful weather. I'll take it! -- Elliott